Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

804
FXUS61 KRNK 131742
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1242 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Snow amounts for the Wed-Thu system are still about the same
with one to three inches possible in the higher mountains of
WV, SW VA and NC, with locally higher possible at elevations
above 4500 feet, like Mt Rogers. A slight uptick in wind speeds
Wednesday night, not quite advisory level yet. No changes to the
weekend system as a couple opportunities exist for light snow
mainly in the mountains.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain to snow showers Wed-Wed night.


2) Blustery and colder Wed night-Fri morning.

3) Additional rounds of light snow possible this weekend for mainly the
   mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Ensembles and deterministic models continue to highlight a band
of rain arriving in the mountains by midday Wednesday and fading
as it heads east of the mountains only to reform mainly east of
our forecast area Wed evening with low pressure well offshore
but good upper energy/forcing. The cold air rushes in behind the
main batch of rain changing to snow in the mountains. These snow
showers will continue at times into Thursday morning, while
Snow-to-liquid ratios increase from 5-7:1 at the start to 20:1
by Thursday morning. Based on total liquid QPF with some rain
thrown in of around a quarter inch in the higher mountains to
less than a tenth of an inch east over the New River Valley,
snow amounts will mainly be under 2 inches. Exceptions will be
the typical upslope and highest elevations where 3+ inches will
occur. Places like Mt Rogers/Beech Mountain/Burkes Garden could
see 4-6" but its isolated to above 4500 feet. So at this time no
winter weather headlines are planned.



KEY MESSAGE 2...

With arctic air rushing in and 6 hr pressure rises of 5-8mb on a
35-45kt low level jet, west to northwest winds Wednesday night
will ramp up with gusts likely in the 30-40 mph range in the
mountains to 15 to 30 mph in the Piedmont. Cannot rule out some
45+mph gusts in the NC High Country north toward Burkes
Garden/Mountain Lake. May need a wind advisory but as of this
discussion, only a few isolated spots may reach over 45 mph
gusts.

As temperatures drop into the teens Wed night and west winds
increase, apparent temperatures (wind chills) should fall below
zero in the mountains at times with single digits to teens in
the Piedmont. Cold Weather Advisories may be needed for the NC
High Country north along the western slopes into southeast WV.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Additional rounds of light snow possible this weekend
for mainly the mountains.

A couple more pieces of upper level energy will traverse the
area this weekend. Saturday appears a case where the mountains
get some snow, then Sunday as the base of the trough axis moves
across, snow could occur areawide but looks transitory and fast,
so ensembles overall are keeping probability of snow greater
than inch very low except in the WV/far SW VA mountains.

The pattern stays on the colder side into early next week with
drier setup except for some off and on snow showers in the WV
mtns. Beyond midweek, ensembles indicate upper pattern becoming
more zonal leading back to near normal temps.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions through the majority of this period. Southwest
winds may gust to 20kts this afternoon then weaken tonight. High
clouds increase, while strong level jet moves across which could
bring a small window of non-convective low level wind shear to
the terminals. As an arctic front approaches the area Wed
morning cigs will drop to 3-5kft in the WV mountains to 5-12kft
east.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Rain/snow showers will begin in the mountains Wednesday
afternoon, spreading east but changing to all snow after sunset
west of the Blue Ridge. The snow combined with gusty winds of
20-30 knots will significantly lower VSBY and cigs. The snow
continues for Thursday morning, but likely will only affect
BLF/LWB.

VFR returning Thursday night into Friday. Another weak system
moves into the area Friday night into Saturday, again bringing
snow chances mainly to the mountains, which would lower flight
conditions to sub- VFR, with potential for snow areawide Sunday,
though not a lot, but still sub-VFR. Temperatures for much of
the period will be below normal.


&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WP
AVIATION...EB/WP