Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

487
FXUS61 KRNK 071707
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
Issued by National Weather Service Raleigh NC
107 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening will develop over our
eastern counties through this evening. A few storms may be strong to severe.

Daily chances for afternoon and evening rain showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the region through next
weekend.

Heat and humidity will continue to build but look to stay below heat advisory
criteria at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1: Isolated severe storms possible in parts of the far east through
tonight, then afternoon/evening showers and storms for much of next week.

2: Warm temperatures continue, with well above normal readings
for the Piedmont and urban areas including Roanoke, especially next Thursday
through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Isolated severe storms possible in parts of the far
east through tonight, then afternoon/evening showers and storms
for much of next week.

Guidance in good agreement with evolution of a frontal boundary sagging
southwestward into part of the area through tonight as a surface ridge
builds northeast. Parts of the north and east will have a
greater chance of convective triggering with this feature along with
the orientation of the instability axis and marginal deep layer bulk
shear near 25-30 kts. Given this there could be some isolated strong
to severe development with strong to damaging winds as the main
threat and SPC continues to have our eastern Piedmont included in
a Marginal Risk through tonight. Convection may reach as far south
as Danville tonight, but should be weaker there.

The aforementioned surface high should keep the east mainly dry
for Monday and Tuesday as the front and moisture axis looks to
stall near the western CWA. A weak upper disturbance should slowly
traverse the area Wednesday allowing for greater convective coverage
and a more moist and conditionally unstable airmass should remain
for the end of the week allowing for a more summertime regime with
diurnally driven showers and storms even into next weekend.

Key Message 2: Warm temperatures continue, with well above
normal readings for the Piedmont and urban areas including
Roanoke, especially next Thursday through Saturday.

On Monday, a backdoor cold front is expected to have partially
pushed through the area, and cloud cover should keep temperatures
from getting extremely hot. That said, readings will still nudge
into the upper 80s to low 90s for urban areas like Roanoke,
Lynchburg, and south over the Piedmont, with 850mb temperatures in
the 15-17C range. The ECWMF Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of
Tails is highlighting the anomalously hot weather as well for
the remainder of this week and into Saturday even for areas
along and east of the Blue Ridge, where highs will reach the
upper 80s to mid 90s most days. For the mountains, it will still
be warm, but high temperatures will be in the 80s to low 90s.

Although we will be well above normal for temperatures at times
along and east of the Blue Ridge, heat indices should be at or below
100F, and most record-breaking heat will remain outside of our forecast
area. That said, it will still be unpleasant with humidity also
becoming a factor this week. Wednesday through Saturday look
especially muggy.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR conditions will last for almost the entirety of the next
24 hours. Some mid and high clouds will form this afternoon as a
back-door cold front moves through the area. Isolated showers and
storms may impact KLWB, KLYH, or KDAN in the afternoon/early
evening, but the probability and limited coverage expected do
not warrant a full mention in the TAF at this time. Winds will
become northeasterly behind the front and generally under 10 kts
for the TAF valid period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK

As the high pressure pushes off the Mid-Atlantic states coastlines late
Monday into Tuesday, winds are expected to transition to easterly and
southeasterly across all terminals. This will return moisture back into
the region allowing for daily chances for showers and thunderstorms in
the afternoon and evening hours. These showers and thunderstorms may
cause brief periods of sub-VFR conditions and brief periods of erratic
and gusty winds if they move in the vicinity or over a terminal.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...RCS