Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

111
FXUS61 KRNK 180403
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1203 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stagnant airmass pattern along with a stalled frontal boundary
just north of the area will continue to allow daily afternoon storms
to form, with isolated damaging winds and flash flooding possible.
The summertime pattern continues through the weekend and into next
week, with warm and muggy conditions persisting.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1155 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Extended Flood Watch for far western VA and the northwest
mountains of NC until 4AM.

2) Storms with heavy rain possible until 4AM along I-81 Corridor
west of Wytheville.

3) Similar weather is expected again for tomorrow.

Storms still ongoing near Bristol TN. Even though they are
weakening, have chosen path of least regret and extended Flood
Watch until 4AM for a handful of counties within the western
part of our CWA...generally west of a Wytheville/Hillsville line
in VA, and for the northwest North Carolina mountains.

Convective allowing models show decreasing trend in activity
between now and 4AM. Rain rates of 1-3 inch an hour are still
possible until then.

For Friday, little to no change in the pattern is expected,
with afternoon showers/storms once again developing in a similar
fashion. More coverage of storms is expected due to the front
sagging south into our area and stalling. Isolated damaging
winds and flash flooding will again be a threat, this time
mainly for the Piedmont.

Temperatures will be again slightly above average with highs in
the 80s to lower 90s. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid
70s. These factors will allow heat indices to soar to near 100
with some areas over the century mark. Temperatures may be a
degree or two less tomorrow, due to more cloud cover and
convection anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 102 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for scattered showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon and evening.

2) Typical summertime heat and humidity should persist into the
weekend.

A cold front, caught in zonal flow, will stall across central West
Virginia and northern Virginia Saturday. Shortwaves tracking along
this boundary will help bring showers and thunderstorms to the area.
A few storms could become strong to severe over the foothills and
Piedmont. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts. The
stalled boundary will lift northward Sunday as an upper level trough
pivots over the region. Instabilities will be weaker Sunday, keeping
the severe threat low, but some storms will still have the capability
to produce heavy rain and localized flooding.

High temperatures will generally run from the upper 70s to mid 80s
across the mountains and lower 90s in the foothills and Piedmont.
Overnight lows will remain muggy and about 10F warmer than
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 124 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Showers and thunderstorms chances remain into Monday.

2) A cold front may bring a couple of days of dry weather.

A backdoor cold front will wedge south across the region Monday.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms are likely with a few
become strong to severe. If any strong storms would develop, it will
likely occur along and south of the VA/NC border. Dry high pressure
will follow the front and stay over the region through at least
Thursday. With a northeast wind, temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday
will be a few degrees cooler than normal. Temperature will moderate
warmer each day into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 755 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR this evening and this is expected to continue through at
least midnight.


Overnight, storms dissipate, with widespread VFR expected until
after 06z, when patchy dense fog is likely to form, along with
lowering cigs. The most likely areas for this to occur are for
LWB/BCB/BLF. MVFR and periods of IFR possible for BLF/BCB, with
LWB likely LIFR. Terminals return to VFR after sunrise. Similar
flight conditions are expected tomorrow, though showers/storms
are expected to be more widespread, due to the stalled front
sagging south into our area. Brief reductions in vsby tomorrow
afternoon from storms, along with gust winds.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The summer pattern continues through the weekend and into next week,
with daily chances of afternoon storms. VFR conditions are expected
to be present the majority of the time for all terminals, but when
afternoon storms hit, sub-VFR conditions will briefly occur until
they pass. With a moist airmass, nightly patchy fog will also be a
concern, which could cause nightly sub-VFR reductions in
visibility and cigs.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Friday for VAZ007-009-010-012-015-
     016.
NC...Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Friday for NCZ001-002-018.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JCB
NEAR TERM...JCB/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...BMG/JCB